And if polarisation and muscular nationalism translate into votes, there&Vacuum bag39;ll be no stopping the Modi juggernaut. It is only in the two smaller states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand that the BJP will manage to retain its tally of seats.By all accounts, while Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar's labelling of Modi as a "chaiwalla" was a game changer for the BJP in 2014, PM Modi's attack on Rahul by shaming his father and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi with a "Your father was termed ‘Mr Clean’ by his courtiers, but his life ended as ‘Bhrashtachari No:1" could be equally cataclysmic and possibly boomerang. The six major Hindi heartland states which gave the BJP a major boost included UP (80 Lok Sabha seats), Madhya Pradesh (29), Rajasthan (25), Chhattisgarh (11), Uttarakhand (5) and Himachal Pradesh(4).Either way, with the help of a high-pitched and aggressive campaign that stokes nationalism and anti-minoritysm, BJP has attempted to avoid the debate on unemployment, agrarian distress and the Rafale controversy." But, given the complete absence of a discernible pro-Modi wave that buoyed the then Gujarat chief minister to Delhi in 2014, whether the lack of a strong opposition will power the prime minister back to Lok Kalyan Marg, with the numbers needed to form a government, is the question. But a section of saffron watchers feel that the Prime Minister's resorting to low rhetoric by launching personal attacks on Congress president Rahul Gandhi could be a "sign of desperation". The arithmetic of changing caste equations in UP and the high-octane emotions in rural India between the politics of majoritarianism and minoritysm, notwithstanding.. In all the five of the seven phases of elections "fear over hope" resonated at rally after saffron rally.
A survey, conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) between July 2017 and June 2018, showed that the unemployment rate stood at 6. It will lose the most in Uttar Pradesh - a total of about 44 seats. While these could possibly be signs of desperation, with 118 seats still to go for polls in the next two phases, on the surface, the BJP exudes confidence and claims brand Modi will get them nearly 300 seats.. The smallest loss in terms of vote share will be seen in Uttar Pradesh (2. Chandrasekhar Rao of the ruling TRS in Telangana and many other CMs to firm up a third front or a federal front, with or without the support of the Congress.In the past five years, the government's track record has been less than stellar. As the voter trudges to the polling booth to get his finger inked, the big question is: what weighs most on his mind - lofty national issues or more mundane matters like the scarcity of jobs, drought and farmer issues? SANJAY BASAK delves into the paradoxes of the 2019 polls where the BJP-led NDA, despite its failures on many fronts, could still forge ahead of the opposition making the best of its lack of unity and a cohesive approach to national issues. The saffron-run social media is, working round the clock to project the "Modi wave," "300 seats in the bag" line. The government has officially denied the data, claiming this was "not verified. The NDA will form the next government. The BJP will be the single-largest party.Despite the shrill campaign of muscular nationalism blended with aggressive Hindutva, a section in the BJP apprehends that it might be difficult for the party to touch 200 if they falter in Uttar Pradesh and fail to make considerable gains in West Bengal and Odisha. Much depends on whether Modi can persuade Indian voters to focus on nationalist pride rather than bread-and-butter issues in a campaign based less on hope than on fear.The BJP could face a deficit of 75 parliamentary seats in six hindi heartland states, vis-a-vis its performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections."Other internal analyses of booths by parties show the Congress' tally could stand between 120-180 seats, while the BJP may muster 200-240 seats.